Normally this time of year we start to see market activity decline here on Oahu as local buyers and sellers start to focus on the holidays. Throughout the year economists have predicted that the pandemic related pause along with the start of an economic recovery and pent up demand in the low interest rate environment would extend the busy summer season into fall on Oahu.
Last month there was a decline in some of the trends after five months of positive movement. I mentioned that could be the start of normal seasonality. Did those declining trends continue in November, signaling the start of winter seasonality in the Oahu real estate market?
HONOLULU BOARD OF REALTORS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Closed sales of single-family homes on O‘ahu increased 5.6% and remained relatively steady
from last month, while condo sales decreased 6.2% compared to this same period the previous
year. Year-to-date, single-family home sales are almost back on track with 2019 activity and
were down just 0.7%. Meanwhile, the condo market is struggling to recover to pre-pandemic
levels and remained down by a double-digit percentage of 15.8%.
The number of single-family homes and condos sold above the original asking price
skyrocketed 210.2% and 79.2%, respectively, compared to this time last year. Practically every
region across O‘ahu saw over-bidding activity for single-family homes, though it was most
prevalent in the Ewa Plain, Kailua, and Kaneohe areas and the $700,000 to $999,999 price
range. The Ewa Plain, Central, and Waipahu regions accounted for the most condos sold above
the asking price and were within the $300,000 to $599,999 range.
The median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.8% to $872,500 compared to November
2019. Properties priced at $700,000 and above marked a 25.7% increase in closed sales and
represented more than 80% of all single-family homes sold last month. Regions across the
island recorded significant jumps in sales, including Diamond Head with a 40% increase and
Kailua with a 60%. In comparison, the usually active Metro region recorded a steep 28.6% drop
in closed sales.
The median sales price of condos inched up 1.2% to $420,000. Condos listed just above the
median sales price in the $500,000 to $599,999 range saw the largest gains, up 19% over last
year. Mid-priced condos in the $400,000 to $499,999 range represented the bulk of condo
sales, accounting for 22.1% of all sales in November, and were on pace with November 2019
New listings typically begin to wind down during the winter season, but new listings for single-family
homes saw a year-over-year increase of 10.8%. Though new condo listings declined
4.1%, there was steady activity throughout the month. Sales in both markets continue to move
quickly, with single-family homes and condos spending a median of 10 and 16 days on the
While the active inventory of single-family homes dropped 34.0% compared to 2019, condo
inventory is relatively mixed based on price points. There were modest increases on both ends
of the price spectrum, including the $299,999 and below range and condos listed for $2 million
and above, and 12.2% fewer listings for properties in the middle.
Some of the areas of concern that I mentioned last month are clearing up. A smooth transition of government is taking shape, there are some positive developments towards a stimulus package, and the COVID vaccine roll-out is getting started. Even though Covid cases are increasing nationwide, the Oahu real estate market does not seem to be as impacted by normal seasonality and should remain strong with more activity than we normally see heading into the holidays and end of the year. The eviction moratorium is still a big unknown that could definitely impact the market early in 2021.
To see the full report, click HERE. As always, a reminder that statistics vary by neighborhood, building, and price bands. If you have questions about your home, building, or neighborhood, please fee free to CONTACT ME.